TPMCafe
« The Frogman Cometh? | Home | Doublethink Redoubled »

How many more

user-pic
terrorist attacks by Al Qaeda have to occur before the G8 and other allied countries greatly escalate the effort to find Osama and his henchman? Everyone knows some searching is occurring. But not all that could be done is being done.


33 Comments

| Leave a comment

What is wrong with you? How many times do you have to say the same thing? Please answer one simple question: do you think capturing or killing bin Laden before Thursday would have stopped the London attack?

"Please answer one simple question: do you think capturing or killing bin Laden before Thursday would have stopped the London attack?"
 
Quite right--we obviously should be spending our energies on something more constructive, like, say, attacking Venezuela

The White House has no interest in catching OBL. President Bush has already said that -- he doesn't spend much time thinking about OBL.


Face it -- the Bush Administration needs a bogey man to keep people living in fear, so they can sell all their policies because "9/11 Changed Everything (tm)."


A serious search for him won't happen unless Democrats take back Congress in 2006.

PS -- I agree with the other poster, that it won't stop more terrorist attacks. But as far as Justice for 9/11 goes, we need to catch OBL. But the idea that just catching him will stop AQ is ridiculous in my opinion.

  One need not sign on to on of those theories about how the CIA plotted 9/11 or that no airplane ever crashed into the Pentagon to realize that something is and has been seriously amiss in terrorism policy.  A sliver of the contradiction was put forward in Fahrenheit 9/11, but there is more.

     9/11, or "Christmas for Tories" was both an atrocity and a watershed event  in US politics.  The event was used to give a shot in the arm to a Republican government that had power, but not popular support.  Some might refer to it as a 'functional Reichstag fire' but that is hyperbolic.  But it is not hyperbolic to suggest that milking 9/11 has become the central theme of US politics in the last 4 years, and will continue to be in the 2006 elections.  Hopefully, if the Democrats are able to get their act together (and if the pope decides to become a flower child) they might lay to rest this travesty of US politics, but it's unlikely.
I am still looking for someone who will have the knowledge/skills and the will to get a website going called StopMilking9/11.com.

     So what does this mean about Osama.  Chomsky flatly predicted on TV during the 2004 election that he expected an 'Osama surprise' in the period leading up to the election -- that the Bush Administration could catch Osama if they wanted, but would time the capture to milk it for maximum political benefit.
That is too stark.  But the connection between the benefits of Al Qaeda to the very political forces entrusted with going after Osama and the other key leaders of Al Qaeda is too powerful to dismiss as a factor -- other than as the kind of non-respectable idea that it is therefore OUTRAGEOUS to entertain.

      But entertain it we must.  9/11 was seen by W Bush, we know from he Clarke interview in Fahrenheit 9/11, and reinforced in DSM I and II, as a golden opportunity -- an opportunity to promote agenda items under the cloak of opposing terrorism but which had nothing to do with any bona fide struggle against Al Qaeda or its terrorist offshoots.  This was something obvious, Clarke reports, within 24 hours of 9/11, and has not let up since.  To truly address the Al Qaeda threat effectively would take a lot of resources and effort, AND KILL THE GOOSE THAT LAID THE GOLDEN EGG.  For this reason, and this outrageous to even suggest reason above all others, the Bush Administration has downplayed the struggle with Al Qaeda and pursued its neoCon imperialist agenda in the Mideast -- which is actually sharply in conflict with the war against terror, protestations and credentialling to the contrary notwithstanding -- and has not done what needs to be done to change this course of action.

     As for "how many attacks" -- that is the wrong question.  How long will it be before the right kind of broadly appealing leadership arises among progressives to provide a serious alternative to W Bush, and what price will in fact have to be paid for the delay in the abandonment of cravenness and respectability on this all important issue.  The ball is in progressive's court, not Al Qaeda's.

identical ill-thought-out posts do we have to see from Reed Hunt?  Seriously, Mr. Hunt, if you don't have anything to say, no one's forcing you to post.

How much before Thursday? If we had caught Osama at Tora Bora by using US troops instead of outsourcing it to Afghanis (for fear that US casualties would prevent Cheney and Rumsfield from getting their Iraq war going) we might have been well on our way to rolling up the whole network. Certainly there would have been some demoralization among recruits. Instead three years of Osama thumbing his nose at us has emboldened terrorists worldwide.


I wanted Osama's head on a pike from day one. It wasn't this Iraq war protester who transitioned from "Wanted Dead or Alive" to "I am just not concerned about him". Bush thought, or wanted us to think, that Osama was marginalized. It was more important for him to realize the PNAC dream of invading Iraq than it was to hunt down the mass murderer of 3000 Americans.

March 2002 Bush News Conference


Read this article from March 2002 and weep. Not a single soldier had died in Iraq. We were a year from rolling accross the Kuwaiti border, we had choices, hunt down and kill Osama and eviscerate the leadership of al-Qaeda, or ramp up for the Neo-Con war. I don't speak for our host poster but for my part I am a little tired of being lectured by people who backed the wrong horse. Bush lied, fifty Londoners (and counting) died, and your conscience can just rationalize our choice at Tora Bora.

The tragic fact is that at this point in time, the invasion of Pakistan that would be necessary to capture OBL would probably do more harm than good.    Musharraf isn't even letting us cross the Pakistani border in "hot pursuit" of Taliban fighters -- and were he to authorize us to invade Pakistan, he might be overthrown by those in Pakistan that are even more sympathetic to the Taliban and OBL than Musharraf himself --- putting Pakistan's nuclear arsenal at the disposal of a terrorist state.

(and, of course, an invasion of Pakistan is no guarantee that OBL would be caught.)

In the wake of 9-11, we had sufficient international support to really go after OBL, including in sanctuaries in Pakistan.  Hundt, of course, was one of the cheerleaders in the effort to divert resources and effort from al Qaeda to Iraq.... and its really annoying to see him cheerleading for a much riskier military campaign to get OBL at this point.

Oh please. These amateurish attacks obviously were done by hacks who have nothing in common with Al Qaeda. Had Osama or his gruppenfuehrers been involved, hundreds would have been killed.

It does not help the party's reputation for seriousness or our discussion here to put forth absurd lines of argument like this. Even if you think it helps score points against Bush. 

I don't have a problem with Reed's repetitive questions.  I have asked the same thing repeatedly since Bush disengaged from the Al-Qaeda hunt and turned to attack Saddam.  I also keep on asking the question because no one has given any kind of plausible answer, as of yet, in reply.

Terror networks grow by a network effect - people who want to volunteer are steered into the terrorist network because they know someone with only a small number of degrees of separation from the terrorists.

Therefore, yes, every terrorist put out of circulation, including OBL, would reduce the risk of a terrorist attack.

Once again, why don't we wait and find out who was responsible for the London bombings before we assign that responsibility to al Qaeda? All we are doing is helping bin Laden build up his street creds. If the British police find that al Qaeda and/or bin Laden was behind the bombings, then is the time to ask such questions.

How do you know that the al-Qauda hunt has been disengaged?  Certainly intelligence and special forces operations will generate fewer headlines than car bombings in Iraq.  That doesn't mean nothing is going on on other fronts.


Eventually, the degree of separation of every one of the billion Muslims on the planet from the terrorist network will be of the order of unity, and at that point, every disaffected person will be directly able to enter the jihad. Once this happens, terrorism will be a regular feature of life instead of a sporadic series of events. What saves us right now is the difficulty of converting the enthusiasm and intent into effective jihad while the impulse lasts. When everyone knows personally someone who took part in the jihad, that barrier will have gone.

It is of the utmost urgency to take every known terrorist out of circulation, far more important than any other security task, in my opinion.

To cite a quote Bush...

"We haven't heard from him in a long time," Bush told reporters at the White House. "I truly am not that concerned about him."
 
That was from 2002...It sounds like Bush doesn't have the "bin Laden...Dead or Alive" philosophy he claimed he did.  That statement tells me all I need to know...

The allusion to Kent State is very cute.  What a stitch.

For his part, Bush had his back covered at Gleneagles by an aircraft carrier moored off the coast of Scotland, in case of just such of an event.  Never know who you might need to bomb on a moments notice.  Clearly that aircraft carrier could have been more fruitfully deployed elsewhere along with a state-of-the-art, satellite-based dialysis machine tracking system. Very clever, those henchmen.

By contrast, where I live the leading cause of death is still heart attack, by many orders of magnitude over terrorism.  There are 70,000 deaths in the US every year from diabetes alone.  Another 85,000 from alcohol, 16,500 from alcohol-related vehicle crashes.  I have to assume a good many of these are preventable. Granted, not as sexy as grandstanding voodoo about the Bearded Evil One, but at least we know where these people live.

A serious search for him won't happen unless Democrats take back Congress in 2006.”

There were good reasons the bring OBL to justice before 9-11 when there was a Democrat in the white house and it wasn’t done. Why would anything change just because Democrats controlled Congress?

“PS -- I agree with the other poster, that it won't stop more terrorist attacks. But as far as Justice for 9/11 goes, we need to catch OBL. But the idea that just catching him will stop AQ is ridiculous in my opinion.”

So why make it number one priority then? Why not leave it as a background operation for intelligence and special forces strikes (is that what that helicopter shoot down in Afhganistan was about?)?




he might be overthrown by those in Pakistan that are even more sympathetic to the Taliban and OBL than Musharraf himself --- putting Pakistan's nuclear arsenal at the disposal of a terrorist state.”

“In the wake of 9-11, we had sufficient international support to really go after OBL, including in sanctuaries in Pakistan.”

So how does having international support to go charging into Pakistan change the facts on the ground that might have resulted in the overthrow of Musharraf and giving nukes to terrorists? Do the Taliban supporters respect the international community that much?

I think Bush wisely decided to downplay the hunt for bin Laden when it became clear that a quick nab was not going to happen rather than to have the world (and terrorst wannabes) watch while bin Laden evaded the U.S. military, turning him into a hero.

Better to pursue him quietly with special forces and claim victory by saying he has been marginalized (somewhat true)

I still remember the sick sneers: "Khomeini issues a fatwa calling for Salman Rushdie's head, and see what happens: Khomeini's dead and Rushdie's alive. Such a bunch of losers, those ayatollahs!"

Today one hears the same sneers from a different corner: "Osama dead or alive! 4 years on, we're sinking in Iraq and Osama's still making home videos."

The line between superpower and world-class buffoon has never been so thin.

 

When O.B. is caught what will happen then? A trial? Followed by an execution? He is one of the most loved and respected people in the Muslim world right now. At his death his ideas will not drop out of sight. No amout of bad mouthing and posturing by the west will change that. His death at our hands will not end terrorism, if anything it may make it worse. There may have been a time when the death of O.B. would have been a positive event for the west but that was several years ago.
 Now we have to face the fact that there are reasons that a large portion of the Muslim world hates us. To them the reasons are good reasons. We may disagree about their view of us and our actions but simply to say that any discussion of the topic is off limits assures a continuation of the present reality.  Only when we deal with those reasons will the "war" end.

I think it is at least a bit ironic that when we bombed a village a week or two ago killing an admitted uncounted number of innocent civilians that was just OK with us. My guess would be that our attack was not preceeded by a warning to the civilians involved.The other side in this "war" probably sees these two events as similar, are they all that wrong? 
  

I'm pretty sure that the G8, the European Union, NATO members or whatever grouping you want to use, are, indeed helping.  They just have a diferent perspective than we do.  For one thing, most of them deal with it  as a law enforcement issue, and that's a rational position to take.  Also, their populations are less tolerant of war and these are democracies, so they have to do what their people want.

They haven't taken our approach, but that doesn't mean they aren't helping. 

The other side in this "war" probably sees these two events as similar, are they all that wrong?

I think Bush wisely decided to downplay the hunt for bin Laden when it became clear that a quick nab was not going to happen....

And, I think that Bush downplayed the hunt for bin Laden when he realized that the forces needed to "get" bin Laden would preclude invading Iraq, which was his number one goal. I also don't think Bush ever had an intention to really "get" bin Laden, but he did need to look like a macho "war President", so we sorta, kinda, almost invaded Pakistan to do so. That act established Bush as a real man's man in the "war on terror" and allowed him to find American support for his planned invasion of Iraq.

My mistake: in the above please substitute Afghanistan for Pakistan. Then it makes a bit more sense.

If you are a partisan Democrat and a Bush hater, then your conspiracy theory makes sense to you, of course. But, there are simpler, more benign explanations:

I think that Bush downplayed the hunt for bin Laden when he realized that the forces needed to "get" bin Laden would preclude invading Iraq, which was his number one goal.”

More likely Bush decided that sending hundreds of thousands of infidel troops chasing after one man in a politically sensitive area with nuclear weapons in the calculation and a clear chance of a humiliating failure while the world watched and a good part of the Muslim community cheered OBL on was a REALLY bad idea what ever his other military ambitions.

“I also don't think Bush ever had an intention to really "get" bin Laden”

Stated in a more benign way: Bush did not make bin Laden’s capture his primary objective when invading Afghanistan, deposing the Taliban and removing Afghanistan as a safe haven for al Quada were the primary objectives.

“so we sorta, kinda, almost invaded [Afghanistan] to do so”

Or: we deposed the Taliban using a minimum footprint of infidel troops in a politically sensitive area.

“That act established Bush as a real man's man in the "war on terror" and allowed him to find American support for his planned invasion of Iraq”

The American public would have demanded the Bush do something about Afghanistan regardless of whether he felt the need to prove he had a set. If he really wanted to prove he was a macho man, he would have had U.S. troops storm into Afghanistan with all guns blazing instead of outsourcing a good piece of the project to the wimpy Northern Alliance.
A thought experiment: Would Al Gore have done anything different in Afghanistan than Bush? I think not. Although he would have gotten some resistance from the base of his party, he would have been forced to do something about Afghanistan and I strongly suspect that he would have chosen the same option as Bush with the same results. Would he have committed large numbers of troops to chase down bin Laden. Even though Kerry tried to make political hay last election by suggesting that he would have, I don’t think Gore or Kerry are that stupid.





The basic claim we are all responding to in this thread is that somehow capturing OBL and his henchmen will prevent future terrorist attacks. Part of the mind-set here is that "everyone knows that some searching is occurring". Part of the argument appears to be, though it's not explcitly stated, is that alQ was behind the London mombings.

But a few have intimated that GW isn't so keen on actually finding him. And in fact, Bush has explicitly said so, in a 2002 breifing. Now, his comments there give some indication of the administrations position regarding alQ and OBL in particular. Fact is, they have pushed OBL to the 'margins'. So, by their own admission, OBL plays very little role in determining their policies regarding the war on terror. Leads to question: if finding the alleged perpetrator of a series of devastating attacks against the US isn't part of the adminstration's 'war on terror', then what exactly is the purpose of the war?
 
Others have also said that the US knows where OBL is, but refuses to 'go get him' for sensitive diplomatic reasons. But look, if it was a priority, they would simply bash the door down, just as they have done in Afg and Iraq. Ergo, it is not a priority. In fact, the administrations failure to act on this undermines their own operational Theorem of Engagement: that those who aid or harbor terrorists will suffer. Pakistan has yet to recieve even an public request to turn OBL over to US authorities, let alone a punishment.

Try to figure that out in any way which doesn't make the adminstration look bad.

So the administration apparently doesn't have any intention of getting OBL. That people continue to believe they do is very surprising. Even more surprising than that is the group-think which advocates OBLs capture in response to the London attacks, when the British are on record saying that alQ had nothing to do with it. They think it was the same 'north african boys' who committed the Madrid attack.

This isn't to say that OBL shouldn't be brought to trial for the crimes he has committed. But we all ought to be very careful about this. By Bush's own admission, OBL is not a target in the war on terror. By his own admission, Afg, Iraq, Syria and Iran are targets. It should make is reconsider exactly what actions we think are appropriate for the circumstances.

ANd why, rea, should we attack Venezuela? Is Chavez amassing troops - and lots of big boats - to invade America? Let me guess: he's gonna land in Florida during a hurricane, when no one's looking, and storm up the coast to Washington.
    Or is it that he's a 'commie', or a 'dictator', and you desire 'regime change'. Well, the US already tried it once, with a little help from the Venezualen old guard, and the coop failed. It seems Chavez enjoys some popular support, percentage-wise, more support than GWB.

"They", with little or no military, use terrorism or guerilla warfare to make points in foreign policy. Neither is morally superior to the other. “

I think it is difficult to make blanket statements like these.
For example NATO used high tech. weapons to stop the genocide in Kosovo, no doubt accidentally killing innocents. Bin Laden used low tech. box cutters and suicide pilots to target the civilian population of a power that he could not take on militarily, to redress grievances that are no doubt real to him. Are these two actions morally equivalent? I don’t think so, but then I am not judging through the eyes of an oppressed Muslim.
I think there has to be a very high bar to justify the deliberate killing of the children of your adversary. Use of guerilla warfare to target military assets is much easier to justify morally, the problem with it is that it makes legitimate military targets difficult to identify resulting in more civilian casualties.
Ultimately, I think the morality of a tactic has to be judged by the justness of the cause for which one is using the tactic (unfortunately that is in the eye of the beholder), with the targeting of innocent civilians without warning being the more difficult to justify (though probably not impossible).

Bush didn't fail to capture bin Laden in Tora Bora, he didn't want to. Pakistan's support is essential to the Taliban. And Musharraf would die if he let us take bin Laden out of Pakistan. AQ Khan, a hero in Pakistan, but the biggest nuclear proliferator in the last decade, receives no punishment, and Bush asks for none, for the same reason: Pakistan has 130,000,000 Muslims, and nukes. Bush was afraid to stir up a hornets nest.

 

The problem with getting the Muslim world to modernize their religion is not a military one. Contrary to what Bush has stated, it is not a war, but a dipomatic, intelligence, and PR job. Bush knows this which is the conundrum he had in 2002 after bin Laden's escape. How to change the subject without seeming all squishy and nuanced like the liberals. His answer: war in Iraq. 

I don't know why Bush continues to allow Musharaf to turn a blind eye to the presence of bin Laden in Pakistan.  Why, indeed, is he rewarded with advanced weaponry sales?  My suggestion would be that renewed economic sanctions could be threatened if there is not some progress here.

I think the previous comment is poorly worded, but I do find myself in agreement with the sentiment. Mr. Hundt, I agree with your premise, and at least partially with your solution. But you've been banging this drum continuously for the past week, and I'm not sure if new comments are really informing anyone of anything.

 

It's kind of like complaining, "how many tax cuts will the administration push before they finally raise revenue or cut spending?" It's a valid question. But the efficacy of raising it every day is limited.

"These amateurish attacks obviously were done by hacks who have nothing in common with Al Qaeda."

Remember that Al Quaeda is a pretty loose coallition, not a tightly knit  seamless organization.  The groups operating under its sponsorship and protection have varied motives, political objectives, and levels of organization and expertise.  Additionally, the attacks were not so amateurish.  The four bombs were well coordinated, used commercial grade high explosives, and the operation was carried off without alerting the authorities as to what was going on.  Whether Osama was informed beforehand or had any direct involvement is beside the point.

You have consistently harped on the theme of insufficient effort to hunt down Osama bin Laden.  Please answer the followoing:

1.  Do you really think that capturing or killing OBL would make a big difference in the short term?

2.  Precisely what do you propose in the way of "greatly escalating" the effort to "find Osama and his henchman [sic]?"

3.  In aswering the second question, please devote some degree of specificity regarding the number and types of troops and equipment required, as well as the sort of tactical plan you would wish to employ.  It is not helpful to simply call for "more" if you have no idea as to what "more" consists of.

 

Leave a comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address