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Howard Dean Wants My Money

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In my mailbox yesterday -- besides the catalogues and bills -- was an invitation to take part in a "special survey" on behalf of the DNC. It's a classic direct mail gambit: tell people that you want to hear what they think, and by the way, send a check.

This one had a bit of a Dean twist. It was billed as a "2005 Grassroots Survey of Democratic Leaders" (according to the mailer, you can take it here), and it emphasized Dean's theme of building up the Democratic Party all over the nation to fight the GOP.

One thing struck me as I read the pitch letter: not one mention of terrorism or foreign policy at all. Not one. Not a reference to Iraq, to al-Qaeda, or even to less martial foreign policy concerns such as AIDS, climate change, or the challenges of a rapidly globalizing and competitive world economy. To be fair, once you get into the "survey," there's one question on foreign policy. But it is slanted at a decidely domestic policy angle, revolving around whether you want to increase defense spending or spend it on domestic needs. (any one have any thoughts on which firm wrote the piece?)

Now, all it would take is a quick perusal of the liberal magazines, the blogosphere, or even my comments section to know that foreign policy is a huge concern of Democrats. True, we do not agree -- and occasionally we read something written by an ostensible ally in these partisan wars that makes us want to scream. But avoiding the issue entirely is definitely not the answer. Not only is it an abdication of the responsibility of leadership one would expect from one of the two main political parties. But practically, it does nothing to close the gap Democrats have on which party is seen as a better steward of national security or the gap on which party knows what it believes (not to mention it seems like a loser of a fundraising strategy; after all, aren't the base voters who are being targeted energized precisely by foreign policy issues?) 

There are a range of different, passionately held, and -- at times -- sophisticated views held by Democrats on Iraq, trade, the war on terror, and America's role in the world. What is needed is an internal debate on all of this -- and it must start now. As Josh over at the Coffee House so elegantly described the Democrats' foreign policy problems, "It's usually a matter of wobbling right around the center.  And [the problem] is about the motion, shall we say, not the position."  

This is no time for Democrats "to go wobbly." 


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"As Josh over at the Coffee House so elegantly described the Democrats' foreign policy problems, "It's usually a matter of wobbling right around the center.  And [the problem] is about the motion, shall we say, not the position."


I'd disagree with Josh.  The problem is usually about the position.


The electorate is wary of both parties when it suspects they are not keeping their bases in line on certain issues.


For the Republicans, one of those issues for them is race.  The Republicans have to be careful not to appear to be under the control of their racist wing.  And this administration has been very careful to avoid that appearance.


Likewise, the Democrats have to be careful not to appear to be under the control of their anti-war wing.  It's worth remembering that the most effective attacks on Kerry were for his Vietnam era anti-war activities and his vote against the $87B Iraq appropriation.

It seems the DNC is conducting a fairly restricted survey; the link returns a "file not found" error.  Of course, it is targeted at "democratic leaders," so one clearly wouldn't want any random person on the internet to be able to participate.  (Or maybe I'm just special.)

Anyway, I appreciate the call for strong debates among Democrats.  I think it will help clarify (even improve!) Democratic thinking and increase the country's awareness of the importance of foreign policy issues to Democrats. 

Besides, it strikes me as much more proactive than worrying about Rovian tactics or the faults of FOX News.   There are more ways to "go on the offensive" than attacking the Republicans; this seems like one of the best.


Likewise, the Democrats have to be careful not to appear to be under the control of their anti-war wing.

petey, I think you're right about this.  But I think you underestimate the attraction of a clear, forceful, principled position -- as well as the "don't trust me vibes" sent out by wobbling.  We cannot predict the future, so many Americans don't vote on specific policies.  Instead, we vote for the person we'd rather have in charge of our nuclear launch codes, for the person whose judgement we trust the most.

For the Democrats to appear to be under the control of the crazy aunt in the cellar would undermine those perceptions.  Which would be bad.  But wobbling around, at any point, seems confused, untrustworthy, and responding to opinion polls rather than making principled decisions.  That appearance is also bad for the Democrats.  (I think that was one of John Kerry's key problems, but that's another comment.)

OMG!!!  No Iraq war referrences?  The horror of it.

We seem to be fixated on Iraq as a party far too much.  Remember the rallying cry from the 90's?  It's the economy, stupid.  Well that is still the case.  The american people are more concerned about their day to day battle to put food on the table and keep a roof over their head then the progress of catching Al-Zahrqawi.  They do pay attention to the war in Iraq.  Part of the reason is because they are concerned with terrorism but mainly becuase that is what being played up in the MSM.  They are far more concerned about health care, gas prices, prescriptions, job loss, minimum wage, their personal credit card debt and if they will lose everything to the credit card companies if something catastrophic happens in their family.

So should we still talk about Iraq?  Sure!!  But it should not be even close to the top of our priority list, it sure isn't at the top of the average american's list. 

Hypothesis: the rationality of a policy position has more bearing on a candidate's electoral attractiveness than the firmness with which that position is held.

Data: two-term president George W. Bush

Conclusion: hypothesis is false.  Damn.

 

But yes, there is the need to avoid confirming negative caricatures of one's party.  Flat-out bigotry and unconditional pacifism are election losers, while innocuous-sounding references to inner-city decay, protecting honest Americans from crime, the thin blue line, etc. can coax votes out of those who loathe the Klan but feel uneasy around their melanin-positive fellow citizens, and firm patriotic appeals that lay out this war's un-American mechanics and betrayal of American ideals and values will elicit votes from those who loathe Jane Fonda and peacenik hippies but feel uneasy around gung-ho war boosters.
 

I hope that you will keep a clear distinction between the "anti-war wing" and the anti-this-war wing (or wing, torso, and half the other wing), however.

"Hypothesis: the rationality of a policy position has more bearing on a candidate's electoral attractiveness than the firmness with which that position is held.  Data: two-term president George W. Bush  Conclusion: hypothesis is false.  Damn."


"Firmness of position" is a highly overrated quality at the moment.  Bill Clinton zigged and zagged like a drunken sailor, and yet if he had been able to run for a third term, he could've beaten Jesus Christ.


First of all, don't forget that Bush almost lost to a very weak candidate in '04.


Second, look at how and why the "firmness" strategy came about:


About 40% of the electorate self-identify as conservatives.  Rove knows that particular figure better than any other in American politics.  So the decision was made to get on the good side of conservatives, and use that enormous chunk of the electorate to get 80% of the way to a majority.  And the further decision was made to stay on the good side of conservatives.  That's the point of the "firmness" strategy.  Bush the Younger is telling conservatives he won't sell them out the way they perceive Bush the Elder did.


But "firmness" in and of itself is no rosetta stone to winning elections.  It's just a tactic in Rove's larger strategy to keep conservatives voting as a bloc.


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"I hope that you will keep a clear distinction between the "anti-war wing" and the anti-this-war wing"


I'm well aware that there are many people who opposed the Iraq war who are not pacifists.  I am one of them.


But politically, the line between anti-war and anti-this-war is very, very thin.  Without a skilled and nimble leader at the helm, which the Democrats won't have until March '08, straddling that line successfully is an almost impossible trick to pull off.


In short, the Party can't be anti-this-war.  It can only be pro-this-war along with Bush-made-this-war-a-mess.

Not to get into a Dean vs DLC digression, but does anyone else see it as ironic that Dean is now being criticized in these quarters for <b>not</b> speaking strongly enough against the war?

If Dean sends out a mailer asking 18 questions about Iraq and whether you want to see a timeline for withdrawal, how quickly until, well, Joe Lieberman or Joe Biden, write an Op-Ed saying teh Democratic Party needs to stop fixating on Iraq and develop a broad platform of reform that speaks to ordinary Americans?

Maybe they read Baer's posting and pulled it down to revise it, before there are stories on the wires about another "Dean gaffe"?

"Likewise, the Democrats have to be careful not to appear to be under the control of their anti-war wing."

Um, why not? 
Put another way, what has the pro-war wing done for us lately?  Consistently lost elections to the Republicans, who are far more pro-war. 

Is the current war popular with Americans?  Consider the polls and the enlistment numbers.

Hey Kenny Boy--As someone who's been getting these "surveys" for years, let me tell you none of them on Terry McAwful's watch said word one about the War on Terror either. So I know it's convenient for you and your silent partners to ascribe some "soft" motives to Howard Dean--as if he personally wrote the survey questions--but this is a longstanding weakness of Democratic pollsters wanting to think about foreign policy as something to "change the subject on", not anything particular to the current chair.

The title says it all.  The goal of this letter was to raise money, mostly from coastal liberals.  I remember cringing hearing Kerry tell a room full of Bay Area donors about "Benedict Arnold CEOs" who have the audacity to offshore jobs.  That yielded silence and blank stares.  The winner was when he started talking about the environment.  It is necessary to have different messages for different groups.  I would guess that Mehlman doesn't talk about gay marriage and abortion when he hits up Wall Street donors.  
I hope and expect that when the money gets spent on ads in Ohio the focus is altogether different. 

You wrote ... "Put another way, what has the pro-war wing done for us lately?  Consistently lost elections to the Republicans, who are far more pro-war. "

Let's be honest, most of what is called anti-war in the party is really anti-military and/or pacifist. And most of what you refer to as "pro-war" is really pro-national security. It would be interesting to see what the Democratic Party could do if it didn't have the albatross of its anti-war/pacifist history hanging around its neck. The  reason we have lost elections to Republicans is that Americans trust the Republicans rather than Democrats to keep them safe, and having to cater to our ant-war/pacifist wing is one of the main reasons they feel that way.

The DNC won't get a dime from me as long as Howard Dean is running that show.

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False analogy alert - against the war in Iraq = pacifist troop hating hippy. When are the people who got the war wrong going to begin to address the implications of this/their failure without resorting to these tired old tropes?  As long as we are working in ridiculous generalizations, the pro-war dems are a bunch of pantywaists who bluster on about war, terrorism and defense because they don't want their repulican friends to call them pussies.  Either they  overcompensating for something or trying to hide their support for the Iraq boondoogle behind terrorism.  Starting to sound like a certain president I know.

 It's a fundraising letter not the Democratic Compact with America or the 2008 platform.  Centrists should be glad it doesn't have a questiong about  Iraq since the answer would be 'get the fuck out right now.'  You want to have a debate about terrorism, why don't we start with how the war in Iraq has created a new generation of terrorsists and provided an advance education in killling civilians/Americans


Snark.snark.

So don't give him money. Give him feedback --directly,  person to person.

What is it about Democrats? I think I'll get on a bull horn and criticize the guy and get my cool strokes. No party can succeed with this incessant internal snarking.

 

Likewise, the Democrats have to be careful not to appear to be under the control of their anti-war wing.

Libertine is right. And don't forget, domestic issues are where the Democrats actually have strength and credibility with the American people. Republicans are the war party. And people are increasingly tired of their war. So let them remain the war party. 

Of course, it would be just like the Democrats to steal the Repubican's issue just when that issue was becoming unpopular!

Dean is getting a lot of press for your party. Don't knock him. Under McAuliffe nobody heard anything from the Democrats. Sure Dean ruffles feathers. But so did Gingrich. Gingrich blew himself up eventually, but the explosion catapulted his party into new heights of power. Dean is your Gingrich. Ride that rocket.

Of course, it would be just like the Democrats to steal the Repubican's issue just when that issue was becoming unpopular!


Kerry tried to use the war as a central theme of his campaign...and lost.  Since '68, and McGovern, the very best the Dems can hope for on the issue is a push.  We have some great tools at our disposal to bolster our foreign policy positions, like Wes Clark.  I hope we use all tools at our disposal but the issues which will catipult us back to power are all domestic.

I don't think I could be any angrier at the Dems.  THe DNC doesnt think national security and foreign policy are important enough to be mentioned once.  Disgraceful

no one said "its the economy stupid" during Vietnam, Korea, WWII, WWI, etc.   During peacetime that is most important.  But in 2004, what percentage of people mentioned the economy as their number one priority?  Less than 20%.  What percentage said Iraq/foreign policy/terrorism/national security?  42%.  Its terrorism, stupid!

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