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Borrowing and Selling

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When the Wall Street Journal compared the tech bubble with the housing bubble, they offered one comparison that was a stunner.  It had that same home-as-piggy-bank notion that appeared in Money magazine.  Comparing owning stock with owning a home, the WSJ concludes:  “Families are also better able to tap into the value of their homes to finance the purchase of new homes and other items.”

     You can sell stock in a recognized market one share at a time, but if you need cash you can’t sell off a bedroom or chop ten feet off the back yard.  A second mortgage doesn’t “tap” the value of a home.  It is just plain old borrowing. 

     Borrowing and selling are very different.  If you sell your shares of tech stock today, you are out of that game.  If the market collapses tomorrow, you can laugh knowingly and pat yourself on the back for your prescience.  But if you borrow against your home today (“tapping” in WSJ parlance), and the market collapses tomorrow, you are in deep trouble.  The loan has to be repaid, and even if you sell the house, you may not make enough to cover it.  You have a lot more to lose than your initial investment.  The debt can tear away everything else you own.

     In the 1920s, the stock market crashed when people leveraged their purchases (borrowing money to buy stock, then using the stock as collateral to borrow more money to buy more stock).  Aggressive borrowing had the effect of inflating the stock market and then accelerating a dizzying crash when it all came down.  When banks failed and businesses were shuttered, people who never went into the stock market were crushed by the economic fallout.

     Could the same thing happen in the housing market?  WSJ gives some scary stats:  “Homes are collateral for about $7.7 trillion in mortgage and home-equity debt, whereas total margin debt in investors' stock brokerage accounts is only $194 billion. For the same reason, a decline in housing prices would put more bank loans at risk; mortgages make up 40% of the assets of U.S. commercial banks, mortgage-backed securities another 16% and stocks less than 1%.” 

     When we hit the tech bubble, regulations dating back to the Great Depression restricted over-leveraging.  The downward spiral was steep, but the disaster remained fairly confined.  Home mortgage lenders have repeatedly loosened lending standards, increasing the leverage of millions of marginal homeowners across the country.  If those homeowners start to fail, the effects will be felt everywhere.




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How does the new Bankruptcy Bill change the nature of going broke when the housing bubble deflates?

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Re: But if you borrow against your home today (“tapping” in WSJ parlance), and the market collapses tomorrow, you are in deep trouble. 

Why? I mean, as long as you weren't engaged in speculation and and planning on reaping a big profit from selling high in the near futuire, you still have the house, you can still live in it, it isn't any more costly to do so, and assuming you still have your job and your income stream is unaffected (i.e., you didn't borrow more than you could afford to make payments on, in which case you're screwed no matter what happens to the housing market) I don't see that you're in any trouble.

Professor Warren seems to be on some strange kick, lately.

She appears to think the American middle class is composed of single moms making $35,000/year and buying $180,000 homes with no-money-down interest-only mortgages.

And she's convinced they don't know what they're doing and require guidance from above. 

Your financial position gets more perilous if your outstanding mortgage balance is high and your home value declines. However, you don't suffer any real loss unless you sell the house. The problem comes if you are forced to sell and have difficulty repaying your outstanding mortgage balance.
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I don't believe Dr. Warren is that far off.  When I bought my house five years ago with no down payment, the mortgage payment was well over one of my twice-monthly paychecks.  The only people who I know of who are buying houses in very similar or worse situations, financing their 20% down using  a variable 5-year ARM and again, spending more than a single paycheck on their mortgage payment.

The very nature of the housing market right now in metropolitan areas is driving people to purchase houses that they really can't afford.  The feeling among the people I know who rent is that they need to get into the market before the prices get even higher.  While purchasing a house that you can afford is definitely a good investment, purchasing a house that eats up the majority of your income (and here in Portland it is difficult to find a house for which that is not the case) leaves you a good small disaster away from real financial problems.  

So no, buying a house or refinancing is not a sure-fire way to destroy your financial situation.  But the nature of the market and the national attitude about housing is driving people to take risks while at the same time believing that they're actually making a sure-fire investment for the future.  In that respect, I think Dr. Warren is right on. 

Of course you know.

Ms. Warren writes: "Home mortgage lenders have repeatedly loosened lending standards..."

Yes, this is because the federal government continues to subsidize home ownership by purchasing most of the mortgage debt. (It's an indirect cash transfer from the taxpayer to the banker and home builder.) Everyone's a wannabe Donald Trump when they're playing with someone else's money.  Combine that with the fact that few Baby Boomers have saved much money and we have a recipe for them to start using their houses as ATMs for college funds, SUVs, vacations, and so forth.

I have a friend who does sub-prime mortgage loans and dept consolidation for Household Finance International.  He's told me the story.  Don't expect a housing collapse to occur nationwide or even within a whole metro area.  In such a scenario the federal government would bail people out with interest rate deductions and/or more debt spending for targeted tax credits, etc.  They routinely provide aid for people who choose to live on flood plains or hurricane-prone coasts. So, this is to be expected.

He says watch for a spate of layoffs or a downturn in a specific sector that is prominent in your market.  Then be prepared to snatch up a bargain from someone in desperate straits.  Fortunately, the new GOP bankruptcy bill will make this approach even more promising.  I can't believe the first-time buyers who are trying to get into the market by any means (e.g., ARMs) right now. The famous investor, Benjamin Graham, used to say: "Where wise men begin fools end up."
 
As a nation, we'd do well to heed Ms. Warren's advice, but we won't. And, that's too bad.  However, I'm a hard @ss liberal to George Bush's compassionate conservative.  As a chronic renter, who's enjoying rents at an all-time, inflation-adjusted low (and banking the difference in cold, hard cash), the only attitude I can afford to have is: If people won't act sensibly, all you can do is wait for them to slip up.

Good article in the New York Times today on the topic:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/16/realestate/16arm.html

From the NYTimes article:

With her daughter leaving for college this summer, Linda Thompson decided to sell her four-bedroom house in the Seattle suburbs and move to a town house in the city's Lake Union neighborhood. But prices were so high that she had to go beyond her "level of comfort," she said, and spend $619,000.

She signed an interest-only mortgage that cut her monthly payments by about $500 compared with a conventional mortgage. Seven years from now, the bill will rise as she starts paying principal  .  .  .  .

By then, her daughter will be out of college, her yearly expenses will be reduced by $20,000 a year, and she'll be earning a higher wage.

"Oh, my.  [Clap hands to cheeks] What will I do; whatever will become of me?"

Ellen, you keep making these sarcastic comments - - - do you really think there's no problem with all this debt?  Particularly given the fact that most Americans have such pathetic savings?

I'm worried about it, because (as a taxpayer) I don't want to get stuck bailing all these people out when they go bankrupt in retirement.  Remember, people who can barely meet their mortgage payments today are also unlikely to be saving very much for retirement.  Most of them probably don't have pensions or retiree medical benefits through their jobs. So at retirement they are going to have to depend on their own savings (via a 401k or private savings account), Social Security, and Medicare. If their savings are next to nil, the pressure will be on the government funded programs, which are supposedly in crisis.  This frightens me.  Are we going to let them starve? Or are we going to raise taxes to exhorbitant levels to cover these folks costs?  Neither option seems particularly desirable.



 
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Ditto to Purple State's commentary about Ellen's commentary.

Just remember that the government's bailout of the S&Ls effectively blunted the market-wide effects.  (Not that small account holders weren't screwed anyway.)  So the entire universe didn't collapse.

But according to what I've read, every single American taxpayer eventually paid $5,000 as their portion of that bailout.

So if you think you'll be okay if your personal finances are in order even if your neighbors aren't, think again.  If we end up in what Ms. Warren predicts - a cascade of downward-spiraling events - someone, somewhere will eventually reach into your pocket to cover it.

You say my comments are sarcastic.  I prefer to characterize them as "irritated irony," because, yes, Professor Warren's patronizing tone accompanying, as it regularly seems to, her fact-deficient when not fact-free generalizations and anecdotes does annoy me.

It is the attitude of the self-satisfied expert who thinks his or her opinion, unsupported by fact and rigorous argument, should be welcomed by the rest of us because he/she occupies a position in some elite organization.

If you want to know why we Democrats have lost so much of the working/middle class, ask yourself how many of our intellectual leaders express that same attitude.  And yes, as a Democrat it angers and frustrates me. 

I agree with you about the elitism of many Democrats (one of the many reasons I'm an Independent and not a Democrat)--and their lack of real understanding of the "middle class" (which sometimes seems to conceal a real disdain for the middle class). However, I've never thought of Professor Warren as one of those elitists . . .

Anyway, I think she's on to an important issue, though I agree that she sometimes lets her rhetoric get ahead of the precise facts.  Still, I think her basic analysis is on target. I do believe the American middle class may be slipping into an ever more perilous financial position--partly because of personal choices people are making and partly because of corporate and government policies. High personal debt, low savings, declining employer and government benefits, large budget and trade deficits, a shift in the tax burden toward wage earners, and foreign competition for jobs all seem to add up to a potentially large financial problem for middle class Americans in the not-too-distant future. I don't believe any politician--Republican or Democrat--has looked at the issue squarely and I worry that if we keep moving blithely along on our current path we are likely to crash very hard sometime in the next decade or two.   

That means I agree with Warren's positions on Bankruptcy Law, on Consumer Fraud Law, and on the Rules governing class-action law suits.  There are probably any number of additional positions of hers that I don't know about but would agree with if I did.

But that doesn't mean I don't think this blog is a disaster.  She's never defined what she means by "middle class" which is, afterall, the subject of the blog.  In not one of her complaints has she ever said what portion of the "middle class" is affected by the "l'horreur du jour".  As an aside, her name's on the blog which obligates her to moderate the "stories" published on it.

What I see is someone who believes she knows what's best for all those financial innumerates out there.  Fine!  Let's have the facts that support the belief, not a bunch of half-baked quotes from whatever newspaper landed in her driveway that morning.

From today's washington post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/16/A R2005061601466.html

I don't know about where you live, but where I live the "middle class" is generally composed of two-income families making $50-$80K per year and attempting to buy their way into or make mortgage payments in a housing market where a 3 bedroom house is currently selling for $300-$400K, with prices rising at many times the rate of our wage increases.

People are buying homes they can't really afford because they're afraid the prices will keep getting higher, and they're borrowing against their home equity to pay for their kids' education.

It's true that the collapse of a housing bubble will not bring down Western Civilization.  But it will result in a lot of people losing a lot of money, and a lot of previously middle-class folks joining the ranks of the less fortunate who are unable to relocate, and who risk being faced with bankruptcy if they get sick or lose their jobs.  The concerns described by Dr. Warren are very real for me and my family.

I gather that you don't appreciate her tone.  Fine.  But don't belittle the concerns of those of us who are stuck in out-of-control housing markets.

Furthermore, I don't think it would benefit Dr. Warren to define "middle class"  in some sort of way that's meant to apply nationwide.  A middle class income in the rural midwest would amount to poverty wages in the northeast or the west coast.

.  .  .  where I live the "middle class" is generally composed of two-income families making $50-$80K per year  .  .  .  .

I'll wager your only support for this statement is your own personal sense of how the term "middle class" should be defined.  The definition may satisfy you, but it's worthless as a basis for a discussion among blog-site members who will likely have different definitions.

Y'know...from my vantage point, (working at a brokerage) that assessment isn't too far off the mark in many cases.

Maybe not 180k...but I've seen plenty of single income families attempting and successfully securing mortgages that would make me nervous.  Straight hundreds and 80/20s are common as all get out and after taking a gander at some of these credit histories I wonder what they are thinking.

Most people DO NOT understand the associated costs of home ownership.  Definitely problems can arise when values dip.

If you can't save money without a mortgage...how do you figure you're going to build a nest egg AFTER you have more money going out monthly?

Ah...the power of optimism. 

 

 

 

 

What IS your point?

"Middle class" is a vague term and talking about how issues affect the middle class requires one to make broad generalizations?

No kidding.

 

I think Ellen's a loan pusher.

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