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Bad Intel

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Sometimes I wake up in the morning and think to myself, "man, the US government doesn't get enough unreliable intelligence. If only someone in the congress would pressure the CIA to base its assessments more heavily on the views on some shady Iranian arms dealers on whom the government has relied in the past to tragic effect." Fortunately, Rep. Curt Weldon is stepping up to the plate and giving people the unreliable information they demand.

Laura Rozen has the goods for The American Prospect Online.

Looking back on Iraq, one can't help but think that things would have turned out better had the administration been more comfortable simply making things up. But instead of fabricating intelligence out of whole cloth, they felt compelled to lend their "data" some verisimilitude. Thus, Ahmed Chalabi and his intelligence network. As a consequence, we wound up not merely operating under false pretenses, but being manipulated by an ambitious foreign leader with his own agenda who caused us all sorts of trouble down the road. One has to wonder, again, what it is the various shady types feeding Weldon et. al. are really after and what their real agenda is.


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Weldon must be right. He has the Human Events seal of approval.

Not exactly my area of expertise, but I would imagine that the CIA is routinely forced to rely on shady characters for information, and that if the CIA were never to talk to shady characters its knowledge would be less and not more.  Not that I’m defending Weldon, mind you.

I would have thought that, to call someone a fabricator, you would have actually shown some of the information they provided to be, well, fabricated.  Apparently, after reading Rozen's article, though, this seems to be no longer necessary.  Hooray for the reality-based community!

If only someone in the congress would pressure the CIA to base its assessments more heavily on the views on some shady Iranian arms dealers

Yeah, we should be pressuring the CIA to base it assessments on all those up-and-up Iranian arms dealers.  Stupid CIA.

The intel looks bad because it is compared with the intel we had on the USSR.  The intel from the USSR was good because there were so many people in high ranking positions that were willing to supply the CIA with information.  This occurred because anybody with any analytical abilities could see that Communism as practiced in the USSR was a loser economy.  No mater how many five year plans they came up with they could not compete against the performance of free markets, and it was obvious to anyone who cared to notice.
Those operatives the CIA turned did so less for the money than as a patriotic gesture to rid their country of a form of government that they viewed as a crippling failure.  U.S. turncoats did it strictly for the money. One of the great tragedies of the Cold War was the loss of these men because of traitors in this country gave their names to their Russian controllers.
And there in lies the rub in regards to developing informants in the Middle East.  To turn against any faction of Islam is to turn against Allah.  If by chance or design the U.S. was able to kill Osama bin Laden, stand by for a great morning in all of the Middle East -- even in the most U.S. friendly sections of Iraq -- because he is viewed rightly or wrongly as a great if misguided man of Islamic faith. 
However, if Muslims come to recognize that the more radical elements of Islam are totally devoid of any faith, and come to believe that radical Islam is exploiting faith in Allah to their own selfish ends, the potential to obtain meaningful intel would be greatly improved.
What kind of religion sends children to die?  What kind of religion promises young boys a host of virgins after they blow up themselves and anyone around them?  This kind of attitude and the teaching of hate will one day come back to haunt Islam.  When individual Muslims realize that they need to clean their own house before they worry about what is going on elsewhere in the world, the CIA may find the operatives and information they need.  

Assuming this is the real Al, please note that the only person calling anyone a fabricator is the CIA.  If you think that Laura's claim that the CIA called Ghobanifar a fabricator is false, please provide this evidence. If you have reason to believe Ghorbanifar is a good source of intelligence, I strongly recommend informing the CIA.

I saw a piece in the times about Weldon and his book which lambasts the CIA and pushes a Curveball -esque intelligence source and I nearly burst a blood vessel.  This is Weldon finding specious intelligence, that validates and rationalizes his beliefs, coming from someone creating the intelligence in order to validate and rationalize their political agenda.  Probably. 

In any event, Weldon is irresponsible for advocating in print that the CIA accept this intelligence which they have already deemed not credible.  Did he learn nothing from the Iraq intelligence fiasco, or did that turn out just fine for him since its not the truth that matters but him getting what he wants.

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From "The Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction":

 

" In fact, over all, CIA s post-war investigations revealed that INC-related sources had a minimal impact on pre-war assessments. The October 2002 NIE relied on reporting from two INC sources, both of whom were later deemed to be fabricators. One source the INC source provided fabricated reporting on the existence of mobile BW facilities in Iraq. The other source, whose information was provided in a text box in the NIE and sourced to a  defector,  reported on the possible construction of a new nuclear facility in Iraq. The CIA concluded that this source was being  directed  by the INC to provide information to the U.S. Intelligence Community.  Reporting from these two INC sources had a  negligible  impact on the overall assessments, however."

 

So it seems that Matthew is the fabricator? 

I wouldn't say this a positive development by any means, but out of all the Republicans in the Congress, Weldon is probably the best possible choice to have as spokesman for the bomb Iran crowd if one wants that option totally discredited (the fact that it's Regenery publishing the book helps too).  First of all, Weldon's well known to be quiet erratic to say the least on foreign policy and confrontation with rogue states, as this Crowley piece in The New Republic from 2 years ago makes clear.  Weldon's dialogued with Milosevic, with Belarus's dictator, and has angered the administration with his freelance, war averse North Korea diplomacy (great anecdote in the article, he mentions doing shots with NK diplomats he talked with).  His dovish attitude on the Koreans doesn't seem to jibe with his Iran hawkishness, because TNR has him saying "<span class="articlecontent">the source that I'm working with in Paris," who claims Iran has sent teams to North Korea to buy nuclear weapons, possibly with $1 billion already deposited in a Shanghai bank."  If he really believe that, why would he risk political capital and influence in the administration to try and work out a 1994-style deal with the Koreans?</span&gt  

Furthermore, Weldon was in Iraq last week with Biden, and though this WaPo article has him admonishing the president to pay attention to fighters streaming in from Iran and Syria, he did get in a shot at Rumsfeld, saying "he and others are misleading Americans about the number of functional Iraqi troops...We don't want to raise the expectations of the American people prematurely."  

So he's dovish on Korea, bearish on Iraq, and hawkish on Iran.  What's the constituency, within the administration or in DC for a position like that?  Is there a single consistent, possibly feasible policy that corresponds to all three, or is Weldon simply a very high profile crank who veers from one self-flattering foreign encounter to another?  

While only a fool would look to explain White House and GOP congressional policy with a purely rational eye, it's not clear that Weldon's nuttiness corresponds with that of the people who actually make our Iran policy.  And he certainly doesn't have the liberal-hawk cred of someone like Ken Pollack.  HavingWeldon out in front on this issue may end up being, in the context of a totally fubar'd foreign policy, a good thing. 

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How do we know that Ghorbanifar is a fabricator? Well, Laura Rozen and I went into this in great detail in our earlier article. http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewPri nt&articleId=9361 . There is a great deal of information that is readily available about Ghorbanifar's actions during Iran-Contra, showing why the CIA distrusted him and why even his fans (Oliver North, for one) came to mistrust him. I would recommend reading, among other things, Theordore Draper's definitive history of Iran-Contra, A Very Thin Line. From the Draper book, here is a selection of judgements from Reagan-era officials about Ghorbanifar. <span>“I knew him to be a liar,” Oliver North acknowledged during his own trial. “I knew him to be a cheat….We knew what the man was, but it was difficult to get other people involved in these activities.” (264-265)  In a similar vein, Charles Allen, who was the CIA National Intelligence Officer during the Reagan administration, characterized Ghorbanifar as a “clever, cunning…con man." (270) In December 1985 Robert McFarlane, the National Security Advisor who initiated the Iran-Contra affair, told a colleague that Ghorbanifar was “one of the most despicable characters I have ever met.” (232) </span&gt

The article's subhead is that "once again" his fabrications are brought to the CIA.  This implies that Rozen believes that some of the material in the book are fabrications.

Ghorbanifar is not the author of the book, of course.  Some of Mahdavi's material came from him.  How much?  She states that "the bulk" came from Ghorbanifar, although Mahdavi himself only is quoted as saying that Ghorbanifar provided to Mahdavi "many information [sic]."

So, we have a book that prints materials given by Mahdavi, some of which he obtained from Ghorbanifar.  Ghorbanifar has fabricated in the past.  From this we are to infer that the material in the book is fabricated?  Sorry, but that evidence is pretty light.

I don't say I believe the book, but you need more than that to convince me that it is not even worthy of being considered.

So it seems that Matthew is the fabricator?

Now, now. Matthew is part of the Reality-Based Community.  So that would be impossible.

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