<blockquote>no one likes Larry Brown, and everyone loves Manu Ginobili</blockquote>

Uh, that's crazy. Is this what growing up as a NewYork sports fan does to people?

Ginobli is an enjoyable player, but he's taking over Vlade Divac's spot as the biggest flopper in the NBA. Larry Brown is my hero, despite the fact that he's a two-faced snake. The man is a great coach. Doesn't hurt that I grew up in Kansas and spent some quality time in Philly; I've seen what the man can do.

 And you've forgotten the greatest reason to root against the Spurs: Bruce Bowen. The man is pure evil.

Dude, he's a two-faced snake, as you say. No doubt his teams play well, but it's hard to love a snake.

Manu's flops are, I'll admit, a bit much at times. Still, he's just so awesome. There's something delightful about the way in each and every game he managed to get at least one basket purely by tricking people into forgetting he's left-handed. And then there's the general awesomeness. More broadly, the funny accents of the San Antonio backcourt are charming, along with the simple humility of the front line.

What's evil about Bruce Bowen. Hard worker. Good defender. Used to be a freakishly good three point shooter. It'll be interesting to see how the defensive matchups work out.

"What's evil about Bruce Bowen."

He regularly steps under shooters after they release their shot.  That crosses the line from hard defense to dirty play.  The goal is not to stop the shot being taken, but instead to either injure the shooter, or to make the shooter worry about injury on future shots.

I like tough perimeter defenders, but Bowen ought to be thrown out of the league.

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Say anything you like about defense winning championships, but if Wade doesn't fuck up his ribs, we're back to the previous precedent:  Shaquille wins championships.

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The Spurs deserve to be favorites, but at the current Tradesports odds (68 - 32 Spurs), I'm putting my money on the Pistons without any hesitation.  

The Pistons match up pretty well against the Spurs.  It should be a tight series.

When the playoffs started, I picked the Spurs and the Pistons.

The Suns were explosive, and the Heat had the talent, but it came down to who is the better team.

Fact is, the Spurs are the better team. They will have one off game, but they are rested, have the depth, and are just plain-out the better team.

since no one likes Larry Brown. 

This is somehow related to those Pacers-Knicks series in the 1990s, right? A few years before Jeff Van Gundy started biting players' ankles?

Something I forgot to say in the other comments I left: the Spurs are prefectly capable of playing a freewheeling, fastbreaking offensive game. The series against the Suns showed that they can play whatever style of basketball they're forced into, and do it pretty well.

Against Detroit, most possessions probably will feature half-court, slow, grinding play, but the Spurs are plenty capable of being exciting and fast (so are the Pistons, but it makes Larry upset).

Hey, Matt, not everyone loves Manu. He's from Argentina, after all, which means that we, Brazilians, can't possibly like the fellow, heh. It would be like some BoSox fan rooting for a Yankee, if NY and Boston were actual countries.

Petey, in 33.7 minutes per game, shaq pulled down 7.6 rebounds; he no longer wins championships (don't get me wrong; if wade had stayed healthy, the heat may well have won this thing, although they would have lost to san antonio, but then wade would be the difference-maker, not shaq).

for a man of his size, quickness, and hands, shaq has never been the rebounder he should have been, and as he ages, it will become a bigger problem (which also isn't to say that, in the right company, he can't still win titles, but he simply isn't the dominant talent he was).

"Say anything you like about defense winning championships, but if Wade doesn't fuck up his ribs, we're back to the previous precedent: Shaquille wins championships."

Until he met the Spurs in '03 and the Pistons in '04, that is. Maybe his teams would have won those series if he hadn't been at least 30 pounds overweight. Wade's injury was obviously bad luck for the Heat, but that's part of the risk of building around one or two stars.

that were it not for alonzo blocking 3 shots in 16.4 mpg, even wade's 40-point outburst wouldn't have mattered.

of course defense still counts.

Yeah, there likely will be a game or two in which the winning team scores under 75, but this may be the most competitive, best played NBA Final since the Lakers held off the Pistons in '87-'88.  (Don't talk to me about the Rockets vs. the Knicks in '93-'94 -- aside from the Dream, that was an ugly interlude amidst the Bulls domination.)

The only prediction I feel reasonably comfortable making is that the series will go 7 games.  Some very compelling matchups in this series:

1) Parker vs. Billups.  What a intriguing contrast in styles.  The latter's size and strength give him the edge against the former's speed.  Detroit can also put the pesky, quick and long-armed Lindsey Hunter on Parker.

2) Ginobli vs. Hamilton.  Both are assassins and winners.  Tough to say who has the edge, though I gotta go with Manu, particularly since Rip will likely have to contend with Bowen.

3) Duncan vs. Rasheed.  'Sheed's ability to play Tim straight up, with occasional help from Big Ben and McDyess is potentially a deciding factor in the series (particularly if Duncan's mobility is limited by his ankles).  Plus Tim will have to respect Rasheed's outside shooting, opening up the paint the Pistons.  But, in the Spurs favor, Robert Horry could be an effective defensive answer for Rasheed.

If Duncan isn't playing at or near 100% for the entire series, then I give Detroit the edge.  If injuries don't decide the series, then it may come down to the Spurs home court edge, though Detroit certainly has shown they have to heart and poise to win on the road.

I was slightly worried, since we hadn't had any basketblogging on TPM Cafe yet.  But now that we have it, I'm happy.

And I guess we can expect a whole bunch of 82-78 games in this series.  Ah well.  The Spurs proved they can score in the 110's regularly if they need to, so I suppose there may be SOME offensive prowess on display.  But likely not much.  But if remembering Charles Oakley brand defense warms your heart, it should be the series for you.

Also, should be a good series because I like the Dr. J-Manu-Parker commercials: "Tony?  Manu?"

About Ginobili. Every time he flops or exagerrates his reaction to contact, look at the replay and ask "was there a foul?" There is always a foul. He draws contact. Simply because he exagerrates his reaction does not mean there wasn't a foul, what it means is that he is extremely adept at drawing the referees' attention to the foul. That is a skill, not a trick. Much like a post player throws his arms up under the basket to make clear he was hacked. 

His decision to grow his hair out is also genius.  You can thank his South American soccer roots for that ploy. Maybe next season he will go the next step and start writhing around on the floor for minutes at a time grabbing his ankle and screaming like South American soccer players do. That would be pure gold.

About Parker and Ginobili complaining to the refs. Duh. But not getting back on D? Pffffffttt...they play the best transition D of any backcourt in the league.  Frickin Nash, Quentin Richardson, and Joe Johson couldn't get an easy bucket to save their lives.

Oh, and Go Spurs.

I like Larry Brown too.  I love that he fires teams instead of getting fired.  He speaks his mind, and changes his mind, which confuses and maddens some people.  I find it refreshing.

I don't see how the Spurs can win without Malik Rose...  Ok, I do see how, but I will miss seeing the only player from my Alma Mater ever to make the NBA play in the championship. 

Spurs in 6

Glen Robinson -- his presence, albeit mostly on the Spurs bench, will ensure that the Pistons successfully defend their championship.

good point about shaq and his rebounding. compare that to david robinson who in his last game at age 37 had 18 rebounds and 3 blocks in nearly half of the minutes shaq averaged.

What they need are those old short-shorts they used to play in.  Nobody wants to get all grabby with a guy in short-shorts...not on TV anyway.

As a Sonics fan I need to point out that the Rockets have our 2 titles:-)  Remember those 2 non-Jordan years were the years when the Sonics had the best record and flamed out in the 1st round both years (took frikkin George Karl forever to learn how to coach in the playoffs! especially 5 game series)  Look it up, the Sonics owned the Rockets back then (won something like 10 of 12 games over a few years), no way they get past the Supes.

All the whining about games in the 80-85 pt range.  Didn't most of us watch game 7 of the ECF last night?  That was one of the best games of the year (as a Sonic fan, I have to nominate game 6 vs. spurs, and whichever game vs. the Kings that Allen had 43).  If the teams are executing and playing good defense games can be entertaining in that range.  Now if its the Celtics - Philly from a few years ago and the game consists of isos for Paul Pierce & Iverson and ends in the 80s, I might want to kill myself.  I think the Finals this year should be pretty good, and the best two teams got there (although a few less lower leg injuries and the Sonics could have been a cinderella).

Carl

Anyone who thinks what the Knicks did in the 90s was "basketball" should never be allowed to basketblog again.

That you've got going back for a few decades there, howard.  You're right that those factors were there from the beginning with the Lakers and Pistons, but having seen them stink it up in their losses to NJ in the 2nd round (what turned out to be their toughest series last year), I just wasn't sure the Pistons could muster up the consistency to beat LA.  But Game 2 of the finals proved to me that Game 1 hadn't been a fluke, and while almost every national sports pundit was hailing the Lakers win in that game as evidence that magical elves and fairy dust were going to get them another title, I was seeing confirmation that Detroit was exploiting their advantages to the fullest, and that they could certainly win in LA again if they had to (which I expected they would have to, until after they won game 4). 

Something I've pointed out to people on other discussion boards when the Holzman Knicks came up in random threads: although they're rightfully hailed for their legendary teamwork, it always amazes me that people forget how talented they were.  The '73 Knicks had SIX HALL-OF-FAMERS on their roster, and four of the NBA 50th anniversary all-time 50 greatest players in their starting line-up!  There was a NYT magazine story a little while back moaning about the state of the NBA these days, and while a few reasonable points were made, the absurd conceit of the article was in comparing the Knicks of today to the Knicks of back then.  As if a roster with six HOFers can even remotely be compared to a flat-out lousy team that can't make the playoffs, or that either team can fairly be held up as entirely emblematic of their respective eras.

Those Dick Harter defensive teams of the 80s and 90s (Pistons and Knicks) were goons. The great Bulls teams of the era were able to overcome their tactics with pure talent and hard work. The NBA realized when Jordan retired the first time the league which had worked so hard to build star attractions stood a good chance of being dominated by teams with less talent willing to play smash mouth basketball. Chuck Daley even said at one point the refs can't call 'em all. The fingers up your nose defense, the two handed shove when your man beats you off the dribble and slamming anyone who goes to the basket isn't what made the game popular so they changed some rules and started enforcing others. I hated John Starks. When Jerry Krauss in one of his more boneheaded moves traded for him at the end of his career the Chicago fans literally booed him out of town. I lived in Philly by then but I couldn't have been happier or prouder.

but are you sure about dumars dad dying at game 3? if so, then my memory of that is probably more of the announcers saying that dumars wanted to be with his family because of his father's death.

otherwise, sure, it could esaily have been the exact same game 2 scenario - i was only guessing game 3 - and yes, someone got vinny the ball (could have been isaih, no i dont' forget) but the point it (watch the tape some day) that he had enough time on the clock to dribble, look over at the game clock, and time his shot to finish the game.

and swish it.

haggai, fascinating - the things you don't remember: Buck Williams! Cliff Robinson as a rookie!

anyhow, as to dumars, i guess what i'm remembering is that he wanted the series to be over to spend time with his family, since no one, at that point, doubted that the pistons would go back home and win the thing.

funny all these years (i watched the game live and also taped it and watched it once again) i've remembered it as an 8-point gap with 2 minutes to go, and it was 7.

but now i'd love to know where that tape is: i personally don't remember kersey "draped" on him; i remember him dribbling down the clock with space around him, looking at the clock (nice touch abouto the 007, which i hadn't known!), and swishing (yes, that characteristic vinny just over the rim swish) with the defender (whom of course i hadn't remembered by name) near but not "draped." we all know about the evanescence of memory and all (hell, we're talking 15 years ago and the pistons aren't even my team) but still: i'd like to see it again....

PS. Amusing the reference in this write-up to Isaiah and 3-pointers; surely they (and you) recall that game in around '84 when Isaiah hit, what, 5 3-pointers in the last 90 seconds of a playoff game? didn't bernard king score 45 or so that night?

"i honestly felt, coming into the finals, the the pistons superior willingness to move their feet on defense and get to the glass at both ends would win them the series"

Not knowing the full extent of Malone's injury, I thought the Lakers deserved to be favored.

But, I am on record as saying it was a no-brainer to bet on the Pistons at 7 - 1 odds.

As I warned the Laker fanatics on Drum's site:  

"Detroit is fast and long. If they can do some basic containment on Shaquille, they've got an outside shot to actually win this thing."

"Once you get beyond Kobe, L.A. is very old and slow."

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And likewise, it's another no-brainer to bet on the Pistons this year at 3.5 - 1 odds.

As they do against any team in the league, the Pistons match up well against the Spurs.  

There will only be one Timmy out on the court, to the Spurs advantage.  But Timmy's only good, he's not the kind of game distorting field that a healthy Shaquille is, and I like the Pistons 2 - 8 over the Spurs 2 - 8.

Ginobilli is good, but wildly overrated due to the advantages of playing a complementary role.  And after Timmy and Manu, the deluge.  From 3 - 8, the Pistons are dramatically stronger than the Spurs.

The Spurs deserve to be favored ever so slightly.  But current odds are way out of whack.

And if you're not betting, it should still be a good tight series to watch.  But you'd be silly not to put some dough on Detroit...

but having seen them stink it up in their losses to NJ in the 2nd round (what turned out to be their toughest series last year), I just wasn't sure the Pistons could muster up the consistency to beat LA

I too thought LA would beat Detroit last year.  Nonetheless, after having seen the DET-NJ series, I was sure that DET would be damn tough to beat.  Remember that NJ was the 2-time defending Eastern Conference champs, with basically the same team playing DET.  If Detroit could beat them (and they almost didn't - and wouldn't have if JKidd had 2 healthy knees), they certainly had an excellent chance against LA.

That said, I think SA will win this year.  They play a very similar game to Detroit, but have more of an inside offensive presence.

petey, we are certainly in agreement on this one. when i noted earlier that i'm guessing that a detroit win involves good contributions from mcdyess reflects the pistons strength further down the roster (although i'm not really sure who their 8th player is, but i'm sure haggai wishes he were better!) and that san antonio winning involves good contributions from horry (meaning that they need more than duncan and parker, although we do differ on manu - sure, it helps that he's on a team with duncan, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have a game).

The '73 Knicks had SIX HALL-OF-FAMERS on their roster

Phil Jackson may very well make it seven.

-- Thlayli

Is the Pistons' #8.  Good offensive player, but crappy on D, hence Larry's reluctance to use him.   He does usually play OK when he's in there.  And while Lindsey Hunter brings some good energy on D, he's really a liability on offense these days.  I wouldn't mind seeing Arroyo in there a little more.

Before the Miami series, I think he had played a total of single digit minutes in the entire post-season!  But I liked what he did when he came in against Miami.  His D against Shaq really was pretty good, he forced him farther away from the basket than Ben Wallace was capable of.